DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3776-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021764933
论文题名: Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing
作者: Frederiksen C.S. ; Ying K. ; Grainger S. ; Zheng X.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-07-08 起始页码: 2845
结束页码: 2865
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric circulation
; Climate change
; CMIP5 models
; Modes of interannual variability
; Northern hemisphere
英文摘要: Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend. © 2017, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109380
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: The Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; The School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Frederiksen C.S.,Ying K.,Grainger S.,et al. Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-07-08)