DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3706-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018775707
论文题名: Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model
作者: Maoyi M.L. ; Abiodun B.J. ; Prusa J.M. ; Veitch J.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1581
结束页码: 1596
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: annual variation
; climate modeling
; forecasting method
; global climate
; precipitation (climatology)
; simulation
; spatial distribution
; tropical cyclone
; Indian Ocean
; Indian Ocean (Southwest)
; Mozambique Channel
英文摘要: Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999–2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109396
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate System and Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Teraflux Corporation, Boca Raton, FL, United States; Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; South African Environmental Observation Network, Egagasini Node, Private Bag X2, Roggebaai, Cape Town, 8012, South Africa
Recommended Citation:
Maoyi M.L.,Abiodun B.J.,Prusa J.M.,et al. Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)