DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3730-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019772245
论文题名: Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century
作者: Alexandru A.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1949
结束页码: 1973
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change projections
; Climate extremes indices
; CRCM5
; Land-use and land-cover change
; North America
; Regional climate modelling
Scopus关键词: atmospheric forcing
; climate change
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; land cover
; land use change
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; twenty first century
; Mexico [North America]
; United States
英文摘要: Changes in the essential climate extremes indices and surface variables for the end of the twenty-first century are assessed in this study based on two transient climate change simulations, with and without land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC), but identical atmospheric forcing. The two simulations are performed with the 5th generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) driven by the Canadian Earth System Model for the (2006–2100)-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. For the simulation with LULCC, land-cover data sets are taken from the global change assessment model (GCAM) representing the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2006–2100. LULCC in RCP4.5 scenario suggest significant reduction in cultivated land (e.g. Canadian Prairies and Mississippi basin) due to afforestation. CRCM5 climate projections imply a general warming by the end of the twenty-first century, especially over the northern regions in winter. CRCM5 projects more warm spell-days per year over most areas of the continent, and implicitly more summer days and tropical nights at the expense of cold-spell, frost and ice days whose number is projected to decrease by up to 40% by the end of the twenty-first century with respect to the baseline period 1971–2000. Most land areas north of 45°N, in all seasons, as well as the southeastern United States in summer, exhibit increases in mean precipitation under the RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, central parts of the continent in summer and much of Mexico in all seasons show reduced precipitation. In addition, large areas of North America exhibit changes of 10 to 40% (depending on the season and geographical location) in the number of heavy precipitation days. Results also suggest that the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on climate, assessed through differences between the two simulations, lead to warmer regional climates, especially in winter. The investigation of processes leading to this response shows high sensitivity of the results to changes in albedo as a response to LULCC. Overall, at the seasonal scale, results show that intense afforestation may contribute to an additional 25% of projected changes. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109397
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Département des sciences de la Terre et de l’atmosphère, Centre ESCER, UQAM, C.P. 8888, Succ.Centre-ville, Montreal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Alexandru A.. Consideration of land-use and land-cover changes in the projection of climate extremes over North America by the end of the twenty-first century[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)