DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3726-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019543352
论文题名: Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon
作者: Bartlett R.E. ; Bollasina M.A. ; Booth B.B.B. ; Dunstone N.J. ; Marenco F. ; Messori G. ; Bernie D.J.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1863
结束页码: 1880
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic aerosols
; Asian monsoon
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate model
; Future scenarios
; Precipitation
Scopus关键词: aerosol
; anthropogenic source
; anticyclone
; atmospheric circulation
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; sulfate
; Far East
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (West)
英文摘要: Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109412
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Geosciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106 91, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Bartlett R.E.,Bollasina M.A.,Booth B.B.B.,et al. Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)