DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3723-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020106786
论文题名: Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations
作者: Poan E.D. ; Gachon P. ; Laprise R. ; Aider R. ; Dueymes G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1799
结束页码: 1818
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Added value
; Regional climate model
; Storm tracking
; Temporal seriality
Scopus关键词: atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; cyclogenesis
; extratropical cyclone
; regional climate
; regional pattern
; storm track
; topographic effect
; winter
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (West)
; North America
英文摘要: Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981–2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal ‘seriality’, as a measure of their temporal variability at a given location. In fact, the driving models induce some significant footprints on the RCM skill to reproduce the intra-seasonal pattern of storm activity. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109419
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Dép. des Sciences de la Terre et de l’atmosphère, Centre Pour l’Étude et la Simulation du Climat à l’Échelle Régionale (ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), PO Box 8888, Stn. Downtown, Montréal, QC H3C 3P8, Canada; Dép. de Géographie, ESCER Research Centre, University of Québec at Montréal, Québec, Canada; Recherche en Prévision Numérique, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Montréal, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Poan E.D.,Gachon P.,Laprise R.,et al. Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)