DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3719-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019070991
论文题名: Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model
作者: Lee H.-C. ; Kumar A. ; Wang W.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-05-06 起始页码: 1747
结束页码: 1767
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: accuracy assessment
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; equatorial wave
; Kelvin wave
; seasonal variation
; thermocline
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
; Pacific Ocean (West)
英文摘要: Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109427
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP\NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; Climate Prediction Center, NCEP\NOAA, College Park, MD, United States; IMSG, Rockville, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lee H.-C.,Kumar A.,Wang W.. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-05-06)