| DOI: | 10.1007/s00382-017-3667-0
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85017414459
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| 论文题名: | Role of circulation in European heatwaves using flow analogues |
| 作者: | Jézéquel A.; Yiou P.; Radanovics S.
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| 刊名: | Climate Dynamics
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| ISSN: | 9307575
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 50, 期:2018-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 1145
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| 结束页码: | 1159
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Atmospheric circulation
; Europe
; Heatwaves
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| Scopus关键词: | analog model
; atmospheric circulation
; computer simulation
; flow modeling
; heat wave
; numerical model
; summer
; synoptic meteorology
; temperature anomaly
; Europe
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| 英文摘要: | The intensity of European heatwaves is connected to specific synoptic atmospheric circulation. Given the relatively small number of observations, estimates of the connection between the circulation and temperature require ad hoc statistical methods. This can be achieved through the use of analogue methods, which allow to determine a distribution of temperature conditioned to the circulation. The computation of analogues depends on a few parameters. In this article, we evaluate the influence of the variable representing the circulation, the size of the domain of computation, the length of the dataset, and the number of analogues on the reconstituted temperature anomalies. We tested the sensitivity of the reconstitution of temperature to these parameters for four emblematic recent heatwaves: June 2003, August 2003, July 2006 and July 2015. The paper provides general guidelines for the use of flow analogues to investigate European summer heatwaves. We found that Z500 is better suited than SLP to simulate temperature anomalies, and that rather small domains lead to better reconstitutions. The dataset length has an important influence on the uncertainty. We conclude by a set of recommendations for an optimal use of analogues to probe European heatwaves. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109438
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | LSCE, CEA Saclay l’Orme des Merisiers, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, U Paris-Saclay, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Jézéquel A.,Yiou P.,Radanovics S.. Role of circulation in European heatwaves using flow analogues[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)
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