DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3671-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017413931
论文题名: Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century
作者: Ruosteenoja K. ; Markkanen T. ; Venäläinen A. ; Räisänen P. ; Peltola H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 1177
结束页码: 1192
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; CMIP5 GCMs
; Model validation
; Near-surface soil moisture
; Representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
Scopus关键词: climate change
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; drought
; future prospect
; model test
; model validation
; numerical model
; seasonal variation
; soil moisture
; weather forecasting
; Europe
英文摘要: Projections for near-surface soil moisture content in Europe for the 21st century were derived from simulations performed with 26 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). Two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were considered. Unlike in previous research in general, projections were calculated separately for all four calendar seasons. To make the moisture contents simulated by the various GCMs commensurate, the moisture data were normalized by the corresponding local maxima found in the output of each individual GCM. A majority of the GCMs proved to perform satisfactorily in simulating the geographical distribution of recent soil moisture in the warm season, the spatial correlation with an satellite-derived estimate varying between 0.4 and 0.8. In southern Europe, long-term mean soil moisture is projected to decline substantially in all seasons. In summer and autumn, pronounced soil drying also afflicts western and central Europe. In northern Europe, drying mainly occurs in spring, in correspondence with an earlier melt of snow and soil frost. The spatial pattern of drying is qualitatively similar for both RCP scenarios, but weaker in magnitude under RCP4.5. In general, those GCMs that simulate the largest decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature and solar radiation tend to produce the most severe soil drying. Concurrently with the reduction of time-mean soil moisture, episodes with an anomalously low soil moisture, occurring once in 10 years in the recent past simulations, become far more common. In southern Europe by the late 21st century under RCP8.5, such events would be experienced about every second year. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109448
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, Helsinki, 00101, Finland; School of Forest Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Joensuu, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Ruosteenoja K.,Markkanen T.,Venäläinen A.,et al. Seasonal soil moisture and drought occurrence in Europe in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)