DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3658-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017190539
论文题名: Sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer using the ECCC monthly forecasting system
作者: Liang P. ; Lin H.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 1007
结束页码: 1022
语种: 英语
英文关键词: East Asia
; Ensemble forecast
; Predictability
; Sub-seasonal prediction
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; climatology
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; monsoon
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; summer
; weather forecasting
; China
; Far East
英文摘要: A useful sub-seasonal forecast is of great societal and economical value in the highly populated East Asian region, especially during boreal summer when frequent extreme events such as heat waves and persistent heavy rainfalls occur. Despite recent interest and development in sub-seasonal prediction, it is still unclear how skillful dynamical forecasting systems are in East Asia beyond 2 weeks. In this study we evaluate the sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer in the operational monthly forecasting system of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).Results show that the climatological intra-seasonal oscillation (CISO) of East Asian summer monsoonis reasonably well captured. Statistically significant forecast skill of 2-meter air temperature (T2m) is achieved for all lead times up to week 4 (days 26–32) over East China and Northeast Asia, which is consistent with the skill in 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500). Significant forecast skill of precipitation, however, is limited to the week of days 5–11. Possible sources of predictability on the sub-seasonal time scale are analyzed. The weekly mean T2m anomaly over East China is found to be linked to an eastward propagating extratropical Rossby wave from the North Atlantic across Europe to East Asia. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also likely to influence the forecast skill of T2m at the sub-seasonal timescale over East Asia. © 2017, © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by : Environment and climate change Canada. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109451
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Shanghai Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China; Recherche en prévision numérique atmosphérique, Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2121 Trans-Canada Highway, Dorval, QC H9P 1J3, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Liang P.,Lin H.. Sub-seasonal prediction over East Asia during boreal summer using the ECCC monthly forecasting system[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)