DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3687-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018479393
论文题名: Dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan using the PRECIS model
作者: Zhou X. ; Huang G. ; Wang X. ; Cheng G.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 1321
结束页码: 1334
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Global warming
; Regional climate modeling
; Saskatchewan
Scopus关键词: climate change
; downscaling
; ensemble forecasting
; general circulation model
; precipitation assessment
; regional climate
; temperature anomaly
; trend analysis
; warming
; Canada
; Saskatchewan
英文摘要: In this study, dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan are developed through the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. It can resolve detailed features within GCM grids such as topography, clouds, and land use in Saskatchewan. The PRECIS model is employed to carry out ensemble simulations for projections of temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan. Temperature and precipitation variables at 14 weather stations for the baseline period are first extracted from each model run. Ranges of simulated temperature and precipitation variables are then obtained through combination of maximum and minimum values calculated from the five ensemble runs. The performance of PRECIS ensemble simulations can be evaluated through checking if observations of current temperature at each weather station are within the simulated range. Future climate projections are analyzed over three time slices (i.e., the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s) to help understand the plausible changes in temperature and precipitation over Saskatchewan in response to global warming. The evaluation results show that the PRECIS ensemble simulations perform very well in terms of capturing the spatial patterns of temperature and precipitation variables. The results of future climate projections over three time slices indicate that there will be an obvious warming trend from the 2030s, to the 2050s, and the 2080s over Saskatchewan. The projected changes of mean temperature over the whole Saskatchewan area is [0, 2] °C in the 2030s at 10th percentile, [2, 5.5] °C in the 2050s at 50th percentile, and [3, 10] °C in the 2090s at 90th percentile. There are no significant changes in the spatial patterns of the projected total precipitation from the 2030s to the end of this century. The minimum change of the projected total precipitation over the whole Province of Saskatchewan is most likely to be −1.3% in the 2030s, and −0.2% in the 2050s, while the minimum value would be −2.1% to the end of this century at 50th percentile. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109459
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada; Department of Civil and Resource Engineering, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Zhou X.,Huang G.,Wang X.,et al. Dynamically-downscaled temperature and precipitation changes over Saskatchewan using the PRECIS model[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)