globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3638-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017191382
论文题名:
Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting
作者: Takaya Y.; Hirahara S.; Yasuda T.; Matsueda S.; Toyoda T.; Fujii Y.; Sugimoto H.; Matsukawa C.; Ishikawa I.; Mori H.; Nagasawa R.; Kubo Y.; Adachi N.; Yamanaka G.; Kuragano T.; Shimpo A.; Maeda S.; Ose T.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 751
结束页码: 765
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Coupled model ; ENSO ; Land initialization ; Sea ice ; Seasonal prediction
Scopus关键词: annual variation ; arctic environment ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; prediction ; sea ice ; seasonal variation ; trend analysis ; weather forecasting ; Arctic ; Japan
英文摘要: This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109464
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan; Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8122, Japan; Okinawa Regional Headquarters, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-15-15 Higawa, Naha-shi, Okinawa, 900-8517, Japan

Recommended Citation:
Takaya Y.,Hirahara S.,Yasuda T.,et al. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)
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