DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3690-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018838566
论文题名: On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study
作者: Zhang H. ; Zhao Y. ; Moise A. ; Ye H. ; Colman R. ; Roff G. ; Zhao M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 1373
结束页码: 1391
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: air-sea interaction
; annual variation
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; rainfall
; regional climate
; sea surface temperature
; warming
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20–25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109468
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne, VIC 3001, Australia; School of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China; Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Xinjiang, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang H.,Zhao Y.,Moise A.,et al. On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-03-04)