DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3611-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021719863
论文题名: Seasonal prediction and predictability of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts
作者: He Q. ; Zuo Z. ; Zhang R. ; Zhang R.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 339
结束页码: 348
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CFSv2
; Eurasian spring SWE
; Predictability
; Prediction
Scopus关键词: annual variation
; climatology
; monsoon
; prediction
; seasonal variation
; snow water equivalent
; snowmelt
; weather forecasting
; Far East
; Siberia
英文摘要: The spring snow water equivalent (SWE) over Eurasia plays an important role in East Asian and Indian monsoon rainfall. This study evaluates the seasonal prediction capability of NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) retrospective forecasts (1983–2010) for the Eurasian spring SWE. The results demonstrate that CFSv2 is able to represent the climatological distribution of the observed Eurasian spring SWE with a lead time of 1–3 months, with the maximum SWE occurring over western Siberia and Northeastern Europe. For a longer lead time, the SWE is exaggerated in CFSv2 because the start of snow ablation in CFSv2 lags behind that of the observation, and the simulated snowmelt rate is less than that in the observation. Generally, CFSv2 can simulate the interannual variations of the Eurasian spring SWE 1–5 months ahead of time but with an exaggerated magnitude. Additionally, the downtrend in CFSv2 is also overestimated. Because the initial conditions (ICs) are related to the corresponding simulation results significantly, the robust interannual variability and the downtrend in the ICs are most likely the causes for these biases. Moreover, CFSv2 exhibits a high potential predictability for the Eurasian spring SWE, especially the spring SWE over Siberia, with a lead time of 1–5 months. For forecasts with lead times longer than 5 months, the model predictability gradually decreases mainly due to the rapid decrease in the model signal. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109493
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth System Modeling Center and Climate Dynamics Research Center, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China; Skate Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, No 46 Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
He Q.,Zuo Z.,Zhang R.,et al. Seasonal prediction and predictability of Eurasian spring snow water equivalent in NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 reforecasts[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)