DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3614-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017168276
论文题名: An AOGCM based assessment of interseasonal variability in Pakistan
作者: Asmat U. ; Athar H. ; Nabeel A. ; Latif M.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 349
结束页码: 373
语种: 英语
英文关键词: CMIP3
; CMIP5
; GFDL based AOGCMs
; Interseasonal variability over Pakistan
; Pakistan
; Statistical analysis
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; atmospheric general circulation model
; CMIP
; oceanic general circulation model
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; statistical analysis
; Pakistan
英文摘要: The interseasonal variability of two basic climatic parameters (precipitation and temperature) is assessed, over vulnerable and data sparse region of Pakistan (23° to 37°N and 60° to 75°E), for two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) based Atmospheric-Oceanic General Circulation Model (AOGCM) versions: CM2.0 and CM2.1 by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and two CMIP5 based AOGCM versions: CM2p1 and CM3.0. A recent historical 50-year period (1951–2000) is analyzed and compared with APHRODITE for precipitation and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis based gridded datasets for temperature for the following four seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON. The study area is divided into three regions: all Pakistan, northern Pakistan, and southern Pakistan. The interseasonal variability of the precipitation and the temperature are derived from all three (five) runs of CM2.0 (CM2.1) and from all ten (five) runs of CM 2p1 (CM3.0). The bias, root mean square error (RMSE), one-sigma standard deviation (SD) and correlation coefficient (CC) are used as assessing metrics. The following individual runs have positive CC with respect to APHRODITE at ≤1% Confidence Level (CL). On seasonal basis for CMIP5 based GFDL models during DJF: CM2p1R5 (for all Pakistan), CM2p1R5 (for northern Pakistan), and during MAM: CM2p1R5 (for southern Pakistan; this run has the lowest centered RMSE of 0.11 mm/day), whereas on annual basis: CM3.0R3 (for all Pakistan). However, out of these four runs, only CM2p1 (for southern Pakistan) has SD < SDobs (0.08 < 0.12 mm/day). There are 13 other runs for which the positive CC is at ≤5% CL, both relative to observed precipitation or temperature. Out of these 13 runs, only the average of runs of GFDL-CM2.1 in CMIP3 in JJA in southern Pakistan has SD < SDobs (0.56 < 0.59 °C) with a centered RMSE value of 0.65 °C. These characteristics of GFDL-CM2p1 runs are supported by their relatively better simulation of spatial distribution of 1000–850 hPa averaged layer wind patterns, relative to NCEP/NCAR 1000–850 hPa averaged wind patterns, over Pakistan, in respective seasons. A variance based bias adjustment when applied displays considerable interseasonal bias reduction both in precipitation and temperature in long term mean with no change in trend. © 2017, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109515
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Park Road, Chak Shahzad, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan
Recommended Citation:
Asmat U.,Athar H.,Nabeel A.,et al. An AOGCM based assessment of interseasonal variability in Pakistan[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)