DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3635-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016392018
论文题名: Mistral and Tramontane wind systems in climate simulations from 1950 to 2100
作者: Obermann-Hellhund A. ; Conte D. ; Somot S. ; Torma C.Z. ; Ahrens B.
刊名: Climate Dynamics
ISSN: 9307575
出版年: 2018
卷: 50, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 693
结束页码: 703
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Bayesian network
; Future climate
; General circulation models
; Mistral
; Model intercomparison
; Regional climate models
; Time series
; Tramontane
Scopus关键词: accuracy assessment
; algorithm
; Bayesian analysis
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; general circulation model
; regional climate
; sea level pressure
; time series
; wind velocity
英文摘要: The characteristics of the mesoscale Mistral and Tramontane winds under changing climate conditions are of great interest for risk assessments. In this study, a classification algorithm is applied to identify Mistral and Tramontane-permitting sea-level pressure patterns, thus allowing for estimates of their future characteristics. Five simulations with three regional climate models on a 0.44∘ grid and five global circulation models are assessed for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Regional climate simulations driven by ERA-Interim are used to test the classification algorithm and to estimate its accuracy. The derived Mistral and Tramontane time series are discussed. The results for the ERA-Interim period show that the classification algorithm and the regional climate models work well in terms of the number of Mistral and Tramontane days per year, but the results overestimate the average length of such events. For both the RCPs, only small changes in Mistral frequency were found in both regional and global climate simulations. Most simulations show a decrease in Tramontane frequencies and average period lengths during the 21st century. Regional climate simulations using RCP8.5 show fewer Tramontane events than those using RCP4.5. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109518
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt, Goethe Universität Frankfurt, Altenhöferallee 1, Frankfurt am Main, 60438, Germany; CMCC (EuroMediterranean Centre on Climate Changes), Via Augusto Imperatore 16, Lecce, 73100, Italy; CNRM UMR3589, Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France; ICTP, Strada Costiera 11, Trieste, 34151, Italy; Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University and HAS Post-Doctoral Research Program, Budapest, Hungary
Recommended Citation:
Obermann-Hellhund A.,Conte D.,Somot S.,et al. Mistral and Tramontane wind systems in climate simulations from 1950 to 2100[J]. Climate Dynamics,2018-01-01,50(2018-01-02)