DOI: 10.5194/cp-14-1119-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85051340716
论文题名: Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium
作者: Goosse H. ; Barriat P.-Y. ; Dalaiden Q. ; Klein F. ; Marzeion B. ; Maussion F. ; Pelucchi P. ; Vlug A.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2018
卷: 14, 期: 8 起始页码: 1119
结束页码: 1133
语种: 英语
英文摘要: It is standard to compare climate model results covering the past millennium and reconstructions based on various archives in order to test the ability of models to reproduce the observed climate variability. Up to now, glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically in this framework even though they offer information on multi-decadal to centennial variations complementary to other records. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be directly linked to the simulated climate. However, climate model skill can be measured by comparing the glacier length computed by a glacier model driven by simulated temperature and precipitation to observed glacier length variations. This is done here using the version 1.0 of the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) forced by fields derived from a range of simulations performed with global climate models over the past millennium. The glacier model is applied to a set of Alpine glaciers for which observations cover at least the 20th century. The observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations driven by the various climate model results, showing a general consistency with this ensemble of simulations. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the results are much more sensitive to the simulated climate than to OGGM parameters. This confirms that the simulations of glacier length can be used to evaluate the climate model performance, in particular the simulated summer temperatures that largely control the glacier changes in our region of interest. Simulated glacier length is strongly influenced by the internal variability in the system, putting limitations on the model-data comparison for some variables like the trends over the 20th century in the Alps. Nevertheless, comparison of glacier length fluctuations on longer timescales, for instance between the 18th century and the late 20th century, appear less influenced by the natural variability and indicate clear differences in the behaviour of the various climate models. © Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109541
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Institut für Geographie, Universität Bremen, Bremen, Germany; MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany; Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, Universität Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria; Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Faculty of Geosciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Goosse H.,Barriat P.-Y.,Dalaiden Q.,et al. Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium[J]. Climate of the Past,2018-01-01,14(8)