DOI: 10.5194/cp-14-947-2018
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049360663
论文题名: Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory
作者: Nilsen T. ; Werner J.P. ; Divine D.V. ; Rypdal M.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2018
卷: 14, 期: 6 起始页码: 947
结束页码: 967
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: confidence interval
; detection method
; hypothesis testing
; numerical model
; performance assessment
; reconstruction
; stochasticity
; temporal evolution
英文摘要: The skill of the state-of-the-art climate field reconstruction technique BARCAST (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) to reconstruct temperature with pronounced long-range memory (LRM) characteristics is tested. A novel technique for generating fields of target data has been developed and is used to provide ensembles of LRM stochastic processes with a prescribed spatial covariance structure. Based on different parameter setups, hypothesis testing in the spectral domain is used to investigate if the field and spatial mean reconstructions are consistent with either the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) process null hypothesis used for generating the target data, or the autoregressive model of order 1 (AR(1)) process null hypothesis which is the assumed temporal evolution model for the reconstruction technique. The study reveals that the resulting field and spatial mean reconstructions are consistent with the fGn process hypothesis for some of the tested parameter configurations, while others are in better agreement with the AR(1) model. There are local differences in reconstruction skill and reconstructed scaling characteristics between individual grid cells, and the agreement with the fGn model is generally better for the spatial mean reconstruction than at individual locations. Our results demonstrate that the use of target data with a different spatiotemporal covariance structure than the BARCAST model assumption can lead to a potentially biased climate field reconstruction (CFR) and associated confidence intervals. © The Author(s) 2018. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/109552
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, UiT - the Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, 9037, Norway; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, 5020, Norway; Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, 9296, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Nilsen T.,Werner J.P.,Divine D.V.,et al. Assessing the performance of the BARCAST climate field reconstruction technique for a climate with long-range memory[J]. Climate of the Past,2018-01-01,14(6)