DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2017.11.015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85036590704
论文题名: The global magnitude–frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions
作者: Rougier J. ; Sparks R.S.J. ; Cashman K.V. ; Brown S.K.
刊名: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
ISSN: 0012821X
出版年: 2018
卷: 482 起始页码: 621
结束页码: 629
语种: 英语
英文关键词: exceedance probability
; extreme event
; geohazard
; LaMEVE
; marked Poisson process
; return period
Scopus关键词: Explosives
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Risk perception
; Exceedance probability
; Extreme events
; Geo hazards
; LaMEVE
; Marked Poisson process
; Return periods
; Volcanoes
; extreme event
; geological hazard
; probability
; return period
; volcanic eruption
; volcanism
英文摘要: For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude–frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude–frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least 300Mt of erupted mass (or M4.5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of 'super-eruptions’ (1000Gt, or M8) is 17ka (95% CI: 5.2ka, 48ka), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110134
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, University Walk, Bristol, BS8 1TW, United Kingdom; School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, Queens Road, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Rougier J.,Sparks R.S.J.,Cashman K.V.,et al. The global magnitude–frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions[J]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters,2018-01-01,482