DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14169
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049522223
论文题名: An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction
作者: Yalcin S. ; Leroux S.J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 8 起始页码: 3849
结束页码: 3861
语种: 英语
英文关键词: avian community
; colonization
; distribution pattern
; extinction
; global change
; global warming
; habitat alteration
; land-use change
; long-term monitoring
Scopus关键词: bird
; climate change
; colonization
; community dynamics
; empirical analysis
; environmental monitoring
; extinction
; global change
; habitat quality
; land cover
; land use change
; population distribution
; North America
; Aves
英文摘要: Land-cover and climate change are two main drivers of changes in species ranges. Yet, the majority of studies investigating the impacts of global change on biodiversity focus on one global change driver and usually use simulations to project biodiversity responses to future conditions. We conduct an empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on species occurrence changes. Specifically, we examine whether observed local colonization and extinctions of North American birds between 1981–1985 and 2001–2005 are correlated with land-cover and climate change and whether bird life history and ecological traits explain interspecific variation in observed occurrence changes. We fit logistic regression models to test the impact of physical land-cover change, changes in net primary productivity, winter precipitation, mean summer temperature, and mean winter temperature on the probability of Ontario breeding bird local colonization and extinction. Models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local colonization for 30%, 27%, and 29% of species, respectively. Conversely, models with climate change, land-cover change, and the combination of these two drivers were the top ranked models of local extinction for 61%, 7%, and 9% of species, respectively. The quantitative impacts of land-cover and climate change variables also vary among bird species. We then fit linear regression models to test whether the variation in regional colonization and extinction rate could be explained by mean body mass, migratory strategy, and habitat preference of birds. Overall, species traits were weakly correlated with heterogeneity in species occurrence changes. We provide empirical evidence showing that land-cover change, climate change, and the combination of multiple global change drivers can differentially explain observed species local colonization and extinction. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110317
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Yalcin S.,Leroux S.J.. An empirical test of the relative and combined effects of land-cover and climate change on local colonization and extinction[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(8)