DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14110
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044179365
论文题名: Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide
作者: Alexander P. ; Rabin S. ; Anthoni P. ; Henry R. ; Pugh T.A.M. ; Rounsevell M.D.A. ; Arneth A.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 7 起始页码: 2791
结束页码: 2809
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change adaptation
; CO2 fertilisation
; food system
; land use change
; land use intensity
; telecoupling
Scopus关键词: adaptive management
; agricultural intensification
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate effect
; cropping practice
; environmental management
; land management
; land use change
; management practice
英文摘要: Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ-GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110356
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, The Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, Midlothian, United Kingdom; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Alexander P.,Rabin S.,Anthoni P.,et al. Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(7)