globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14034
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040604544
论文题名:
Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century
作者: Wang B.; Liu D.L.; O'Leary G.J.; Asseng S.; Macadam I.; Lines-Kelly R.; Yang X.; Clark A.; Crean J.; Sides T.; Xing H.; Mi C.; Yu Q.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期:6
起始页码: 2403
结束页码: 2415
语种: 英语
英文关键词: adaptation options ; APSIM model ; climate change ; climate suitability ; species distribution model ; wheat yield
Scopus关键词: adaptive management ; climate change ; climate effect ; crop production ; crop yield ; food security ; future prospect ; strategic approach ; wheat ; Australia ; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041–2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO2 emission scenario by 2081–2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110390
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Horsham, VIC, Australia; Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wollongbar, NSW, Australia; New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage, Parramatta, NSW, Australia; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange Agricultural Institute, Orange, NSW, Australia; School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China

Recommended Citation:
Wang B.,Liu D.L.,O'Leary G.J.,et al. Australian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(6)
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