DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14104
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044975033
论文题名: Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors
作者: Li Q. ; Kou X. ; Beierkuhnlein C. ; Liu S. ; Ge J.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 6 起始页码: 2463
结束页码: 2475
语种: 英语
英文关键词: future climates
; hydraulic factors
; last glacial maximum
; middle holocene
; nonanalogous climate
; novel ecosystems
; thermal factors
Scopus关键词: biodiversity
; climate effect
; Holocene
; Last Glacial Maximum
; paleoclimate
英文摘要: Nonanalogous climates (NACs), climates without modern analogs on Earth, challenge our understanding of eco-evolutionary processes that shape global biodiversity, particularly because of their propensity to promote novel ecosystems. However, NAC studies are generally inadequate and partial. Specifically, systematic comparisons between the future and the past are generally lacking, and hydraulic NACs tend to be underemphasized. In the present study, by adopting a frequency distribution-based method that facilitates the procedures of contributions parsing and conducting multiple comparisons, we provide a global overview of multidimensional NACs for both the past and the future within a unified framework. We show that NACs are globally prevalent, covering roughly half of the land area across the time-periods under investigation, and have a high degree of spatial structure. Patterns of NACs differ dramatically between the past and the future. Hydraulic NACs are more complex both in spatial patterns and in major contributions of variables than are thermal NACs. However, hydraulic NACs are more predictable than originally thought. Generally, hydraulic NACs in the future (2100 AD) exhibit comparable predictability to thermal NACs in the last glacial maximum (LGM) (21k BP). Identifying these NAC patterns has potential implications on climate-adaptive managements and preparing in advance to possibly frequent novel ecosystems. However, a learning-from-the-past strategy might be of limited utility for management under present circumstances. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110392
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: College of Life Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Department of Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Department of Biogeography, BayCEER, GIB, University of Bayreuth, Bayreuth, Germany; Key Laboratory of China's State Forestry Administration for Forest Ecology and Environment, Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Li Q.,Kou X.,Beierkuhnlein C.,et al. Global patterns of nonanalogous climates in the past and future derived from thermal and hydraulic factors[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(6)