DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14112
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047840732
论文题名: Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites
作者: Faleiro F.V. ; Nemésio A. ; Loyola R.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 6 起始页码: 2272
结束页码: 2283
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atlantic rainforest
; biodiversity loss
; Euglossini
; pollinators
; species distribution models
Scopus关键词: abundance
; angiosperm
; bee
; biodiversity
; climate change
; niche
; numerical model
; pollinator
; rainforest
; Atlantic Forest
; Brazil
; Apidae
; Euglossini
; Hymenoptera
英文摘要: Studies have tested whether model predictions based on species’ occurrence can predict the spatial pattern of population abundance. The relationship between predicted environmental suitability and population abundance varies in shape, strength and predictive power. However, little attention has been paid to the congruence in predictions of different models fed with occurrence or abundance data, in particular when comparing metrics of climate change impact. Here, we used the ecological niche modeling fit with presence–absence and abundance data of orchid bees to predict the effect of climate change on species and assembly level distribution patterns. In addition, we assessed whether predictions of presence–absence models can be used as a proxy to abundance patterns. We obtained georeferenced abundance data of orchid bees (Hymenoptera: Apidae: Euglossina) in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Sampling method consisted in attracting male orchid bees to baits of at least five different aromatic compounds and collecting the individuals with entomological nets or bait traps. We limited abundance data to those obtained by similar standard sampling protocol to avoid bias in abundance estimation. We used boosted regression trees to model ecological niches and project them into six climate models and two Representative Concentration Pathways. We found that models based on species occurrences worked as a proxy for changes in population abundance when the output of the models were continuous; results were very different when outputs were discretized to binary predictions. We found an overall trend of diminishing abundance in the future, but a clear retention of climatically suitable sites too. Furthermore, geographic distance to gained climatic suitable areas can be very short, although it embraces great variation. Changes in species richness and turnover would be concentrated in western and southern Atlantic Forest. Our findings offer support to the ongoing debate of suitability–abundance models and can be used to support spatial conservation prioritization schemes and species triage in Atlantic Forest. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110403
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação, Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil; Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Evolução, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil; Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia, MG, Brazil; Centro Nacional de Conservação da Flora, Instituto de Pesquisas Jardim Botânico do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change – Rede Clima, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Faleiro F.V.,Nemésio A.,Loyola R.. Climate change likely to reduce orchid bee abundance even in climatic suitable sites[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(6)