DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13995
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85038847013
论文题名: Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services
作者: Boone R.B. ; Conant R.T. ; Sircely J. ; Thornton P.K. ; Herrero M.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 3 起始页码: 1382
结束页码: 1393
语种: 英语
英文关键词: annual net primary production
; forage biomass
; G-Range
; global rangeland simulator
; livestock
; plant cover change
; plant functional groups
Scopus关键词: biomass
; climate change
; climate effect
; ecosystem service
; functional group
; livelihood
; livestock
; net primary production
; rangeland
; Africa
; Australia
英文摘要: Rangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m−2 year−1 in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m−2 year−1). Responses vary substantially from place-to-place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (−46% in sub-Saharan western Africa) and Australia (−17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., −18% in sub-Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110491
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya; The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Boone R.B.,Conant R.T.,Sircely J.,et al. Climate change impacts on selected global rangeland ecosystem services[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(3)