globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14019
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040066201
论文题名:
Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments
作者: Tao F.; Rötter R.P.; Palosuo T.; Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona C.; Mínguez M.I.; Semenov M.A.; Kersebaum K.C.; Nendel C.; Specka X.; Hoffmann H.; Ewert F.; Dambreville A.; Martre P.; Rodríguez L.; Ruiz-Ramos M.; Gaiser T.; Höhn J.G.; Salo T.; Ferrise R.; Bindi M.; Cammarano D.; Schulman A.H.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期:3
起始页码: 1291
结束页码: 1307
语种: 英语
英文关键词: barley ; climate change ; Europe ; impact ; super-ensemble ; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: assessment method ; barley ; climate change ; climate effect ; crop yield ; growth ; growth response ; probability ; uncertainty analysis ; Catalonia ; Finland ; Jokioinen ; Kanta-Hame ; Lerida [Catalonia] ; Spain ; Hordeum
英文摘要: Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was −4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981–2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple-ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110498
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Helsinki, Finland; Department of Crop Sciences, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Georg-August-University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany; Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), Georg-August-University of Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany; AgSystems–CEIGRAM Research Centre for Agricultural and Environmental Risk Management-Technical, University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, United Kingdom; Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Müncheberg, Germany; Crop Science Group, INRES, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; UMR LEPSE, INRA, Montpellier, France; Department of Agri-food Production and Environmental Sciences, University of Florence, Firenze, Italy; The James Hutton Institute, Dundee, United Kingdom; Institute of Biotechnology and Viikki Plant Science Centre, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

Recommended Citation:
Tao F.,Rötter R.P.,Palosuo T.,et al. Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(3)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Tao F.]'s Articles
[Rötter R.P.]'s Articles
[Palosuo T.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Tao F.]'s Articles
[Rötter R.P.]'s Articles
[Palosuo T.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Tao F.]‘s Articles
[Rötter R.P.]‘s Articles
[Palosuo T.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.