DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13960
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85034237316
论文题名: The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity
作者: Franks S.E. ; Pearce-Higgins J.W. ; Atkinson S. ; Bell J.R. ; Botham M.S. ; Brereton T.M. ; Harrington R. ; Leech D.I.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 3 起始页码: 957
结束页码: 971
语种: 英语
英文关键词: citizen science
; climate change
; demography
; migration
; mismatch hypothesis
; phenology
; population change
; trophic asynchrony
Scopus关键词: breeding population
; climate change
; demographic trend
; demography
; ecological impact
; fitness
; phenology
; population decline
; population migration
; prey availability
; seasonality
; songbird
; trophic conditions
; Aves
; Hexapoda
; Passeri
英文摘要: A consequence of climate change has been an advance in the timing of seasonal events. Differences in the rate of advance between trophic levels may result in predators becoming mismatched with prey availability, reducing fitness and potentially driving population declines. Such “trophic asynchrony” is hypothesized to have contributed to recent population declines of long-distance migratory birds in particular. Using spatially extensive survey data from 1983 to 2010 to estimate variation in spring phenology from 280 plant and insect species and the egg-laying phenology of 21 British songbird species, we explored the effects of trophic asynchrony on avian population trends and potential underlying demographic mechanisms. Species which advanced their laying dates least over the last three decades, and were therefore at greatest risk of asynchrony, exhibited the most negative population trends. We expressed asynchrony as the annual variation in bird phenology relative to spring phenology, and related asynchrony to annual avian productivity. In warmer springs, birds were more asynchronous, but productivity was only marginally reduced; long-distance migrants, short-distance migrants and resident bird species all exhibited effects of similar magnitude. Long-term population, but not productivity, declines were greatest among those species whose annual productivity was most greatly reduced by asynchrony. This suggests that population change is not mechanistically driven by the negative effects of asynchrony on productivity. The apparent effects of asynchrony on population trends are therefore either more likely to be strongly expressed via other demographic pathways, or alternatively, are a surrogate for species' sensitivity to other environmental pressures which are the ultimate cause of decline. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110503
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, United Kingdom; The Woodland Trust, Grantham, United Kingdom; Rothamsted Insect Survey, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom; Biological Records Centre, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Crowmarsh Gifford, United Kingdom; Butterfly Conservation, Manor Yard, Wareham, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Franks S.E.,Pearce-Higgins J.W.,Atkinson S.,et al. The sensitivity of breeding songbirds to changes in seasonal timing is linked to population change but cannot be directly attributed to the effects of trophic asynchrony on productivity[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(3)