DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13901
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85039760709
论文题名: Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub-Saharan Africa
作者: Hoffman A.L. ; Kemanian A.R. ; Forest C.E.
刊名: Global Change Biology
ISSN: 13541013
出版年: 2018
卷: 24, 期: 1 起始页码: 143
结束页码: 157
语种: 英语
英文关键词: African agriculture
; climate change
; crop yields
; food security
; Random Forest
; statistical crop modeling
; sub-Saharan Africa
; temperature increase
Scopus关键词: agricultural technology
; climate change
; climate signal
; crop production
; crop yield
; evapotranspiration
; food security
; machine learning
; numerical model
; precipitation (climatology)
; temperature effect
; Sub-Saharan Africa
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Food security and agriculture productivity assessments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) require a better understanding of how climate and other drivers influence regional crop yields. In this paper, our objective was to identify the climate signal in the realized yields of maize, sorghum, and groundnut in SSA. We explored the relation between crop yields and scale-compatible climate data for the 1962–2014 period using Random Forest, a diagnostic machine learning technique. We found that improved agricultural technology and country fixed effects are three times more important than climate variables for explaining changes in crop yields in SSA. We also found that increasing temperatures reduced yields for all three crops in the temperature range observed in SSA, while precipitation increased yields up to a level roughly matching crop evapotranspiration. Crop yields exhibited both linear and nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation, respectively. For maize, technology steadily increased yields by about 1% (13 kg/ha) per year while increasing temperatures decreased yields by 0.8% (10 kg/ha) per °C. This study demonstrates that although we should expect increases in future crop yields due to improving technology, the potential yields could be progressively reduced due to warmer and drier climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110567
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Plant Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hoffman A.L.,Kemanian A.R.,Forest C.E.. Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub-Saharan Africa[J]. Global Change Biology,2018-01-01,24(1)