globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0202.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054049509
论文题名:
Contribution of the interdecadal pacific oscillation to the recent abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998
作者: Zhao J.; Zhan R.; Wang Y.; Xu H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:20
起始页码: 8211
结束页码: 8224
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Interdecadal variability ; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Hurricanes ; Oceanography ; Storms ; Surface waters ; Clustering analysis ; General circulation model ; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories ; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations ; Inter-decadal variability ; Sea surface temperature anomalies ; Tropical cyclone ; Western North Pacific ; Tropics
英文摘要: Previous studies have documented an abrupt decrease of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) since 1998. In this study, results from an objective clustering analysis demonstrated that this abrupt decrease is primarily related to the decrease in a cluster of TCs (C1) that mostly formed over the southeastern WNP, south of 15°N and east of the Philippines, and possessed long tracks. Further statistical analyses based on both best track TC data and global reanalysis data during 1980-2015 revealed that the genesis of C1 TCs was significantly modulated by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), whose recent negative phase since 1998 corresponded to a La Niña-like sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern, which strengthened the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and weakened the WNP monsoon trough, suppressing genesis of C1 TCs in the southeastern WNP and predominantly contributing to the decrease in TC genesis frequency over the entire WNP basin. These findings were further confirmed by results from similar analyses based on longer observational datasets and also the outputs from a 500-yr preindustrial general circulation model experiment using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model, version 3. Additional analysis indicates that the decrease in C1 TC genesis frequency in the recent period was dominated during August-October, with the largest decrease in October. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110641
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Pacific Typhoon Research Center, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, China

Recommended Citation:
Zhao J.,Zhan R.,Wang Y.,et al. Contribution of the interdecadal pacific oscillation to the recent abrupt decrease in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific since 1998[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)
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