DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0843.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053038832
论文题名: Human contribution to the increasing summer precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013
作者: Peng D. ; Zhou T. ; Zhang L. ; Wu B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 19 起始页码: 8005
结束页码: 8021
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Moisture/moisture budget
; Precipitation
; Trends
Scopus关键词: Advection
; Atmospheric radiation
; Budget control
; Climate models
; Moisture
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Wetting
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Community atmosphere model
; Human-induced warmings
; Moisture advection
; Moisture/moisture budgets
; Radiative forcings
; Summer precipitation
; Trends
; Climate change
英文摘要: The ecosystem and societal development over arid Central Asia, the core connecting region of the Silk Road Economic Belt, are highly sensitive to climate change. The results derived from multiobservational datasets show that summer precipitation over Central Asia has significantly increased by 20.78% from 1961 to 2013. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the summer wetting trend or not. In this study, the corresponding physical processes and contributions of anthropogenic forcing are investigated by comparing reanalysis and experiments of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1 (CAM5.1), from the CLIVAR Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project. The observed wetting trend is well reproduced in the simulation driven by all radiative forcings (CAM5-All), but poorly reproduced in the simulation with natural forcings only (CAM5-Nat), confirming the important role of human contribution in the observed wetting trend. Moisture budget analysis shows that the observed wetting trend is dominated by the increasing vertical moisture advection term and results from enhanced vertical motion over nearly all of Central Asia. The observed contributions of moisture budget components to the wetting trend are only captured by CAM5-All experiments. The dynamic contribution is determined by the warm advection anomalies in association with a human-induced meridional uneven warm pattern. Human-induced warming increases the specific humidity over all of Central Asia, increasing (decreasing) the precipitation over the climatological ascent (descent) region in eastern (western) Central Asia. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110645
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: State Key Lab. of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Guangzhou, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Peng D.,Zhou T.,Zhang L.,et al. Human contribution to the increasing summer precipitation in Central Asia from 1961 to 2013[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(19)