DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0109.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85053058118
论文题名: Diminishing Arctic sea ice promotes stronger surface winds
作者: Mioduszewski J. ; Vavrus S. ; Wang M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 19 起始页码: 8101
结束页码: 8119
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic
; Atmosphere-ocean interaction
; Climate change
; Thermodynamics
; Wind
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate change
; Sea ice
; Sea level
; Thermodynamics
; Wind
; Arctic
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Atmospheric stability
; Coastal erosion
; Earth system model
; Extreme wind speed
; Near-surface winds
; Surface warming
; Surface roughness
英文摘要: Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the twenty-first century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic basin because of changes in atmospheric stability, surface roughness, and/or baroclinicity. Here we identify patterns of wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic and their likely causal mechanisms, particularly those associated with sea ice loss. Output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) was analyzed for the recent past (primarily 1971-2000) and future (2071-2100). Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 95th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by up to 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing surface roughness and lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (exceeding 20°C warmer in the central Arctic in autumn and winter), as well as local changes in the storm track. The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal and navigational hazards. Our findings suggest that increasing winds, along with reduction of sea ice, rising sea level, and thawing permafrost, represent another important contributor to the growing problem of Arctic coastal erosion. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110647
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington and Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mioduszewski J.,Vavrus S.,Wang M.. Diminishing Arctic sea ice promotes stronger surface winds[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(19)