DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0717.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054089074
论文题名: Estimating the transient climate response from observed warming
作者: Schurer A. ; Hegerl G. ; Ribes A. ; Polson D. ; Morice C. ; Tett S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 20 起始页码: 8645
结束页码: 8663
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aerosols
; Climate sensitivity
; Greenhouse gases
; Regression analysis
; Statistical techniques
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Bayesian networks
; Greenhouse gases
; Regression analysis
; Surface waters
; Transient analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate sensitivity
; Gas concentration
; Global temperatures
; Historical records
; Individual modeling
; Model uncertainties
; Statistical techniques
; Variance corrections
; Climate models
英文摘要: The transient climate response (TCR) quantifies the warming expected during a transient doubling of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Many previous studies quantifying the observed historic response to greenhouse gases, and with it the TCR, use multimodel mean fingerprints and found reasonably constrained values, which contributed to the IPCC estimated (>66%) range from 1° to 2.5°C. Here, it is shown that while the multimodel mean fingerprint is statistically more powerful than any individual model's fingerprint, it does lead to overconfident results when applied to synthetic data, if model uncertainty is neglected. Here, a Bayesian method is used that estimates TCR, accounting for climate model and observational uncertainty with indices of global temperature that aim at constraining the aerosol contribution to the historical record better. Model uncertainty in the aerosol response was found to be large. Nevertheless, an overall TCR estimate of 0.4°-3.1°C (>90%) was calculated from the historical record, which reduces to 1.0°-2.6°C when using prior information that rules out negative TCR values and model misestimates of more than a factor of 3, and to 1.2°-2.4°C when using the multimodel mean fingerprints with a variance correction. Modeled temperature, like in the observations, is calculated as a blend of sea surface and air temperatures. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110652
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; CNRM-GAME, Meteo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Schurer A.,Hegerl G.,Ribes A.,et al. Estimating the transient climate response from observed warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)