DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0010.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054093300
论文题名: The continuum of drought in southwestern North America
作者: Parsons L.A. ; Coats S. ; Overpeck J.T.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 20 起始页码: 8627
结束页码: 8643
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmosphere-ocean interaction
; Climate variability
; Drought
; Ensembles
; General circulation models
; Paleoclimate
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Conformal mapping
; Drought
; Oceanography
; Self organizing maps
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate variability
; Ensembles
; General circulation model
; Paleoclimates
; Climate models
英文摘要: Drought has severe consequences for humans and their environment, yet we have a limited understanding of the drivers of drought across the full range of time scales on which it occurs. Here, the atmosphere and ocean conditions that drive this continuum of drought variability in southwestern North America (SWNA) are studied using the latest observationally based products, paleoclimate reconstructions, and state-of-the-art Earth system model simulations of the last millennium. A novel application of the self-organizing maps (SOM) methodology allows for a visualization of the continuum of climate states coinciding with thousands of droughts of varying lengths in last millennium simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS E2-R), and eight other members from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that most droughts are associated with a cool Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) pattern, but persistent droughts can coincide with a variety of ocean-atmosphere states, including time periods showing a warm PDO or weak ocean-atmosphere anomalies. Many CMIP5 models simulate similar SWNA teleconnection patterns, but the SOM analysis demonstrates that models simulate different continuums of ocean-atmosphere states coinciding with droughts of different lengths, suggesting fundamental differences in their drought dynamics. These findings have important implications for our understanding and simulation of the drivers of persistent drought, and for their potential predictability. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110677
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States; School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Parsons L.A.,Coats S.,Overpeck J.T.. The continuum of drought in southwestern North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)