DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0191.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054083567
论文题名: Seasonal predictability of summer rainfall over South America
作者: Bombardi R.J. ; Trenary L. ; Pegion K. ; Cash B. ; DelSole T. ; Kinter J.L. ; III
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 20 起始页码: 8181
结束页码: 8195
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Coupled models
; Forecast verification/skill
; Rainfall
; Seasonal forecasting
; South America
; Statistical techniques
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate models
; Image resolution
; Rain
; Coupled models
; Forecast verification/skill
; Seasonal forecasting
; South America
; Statistical techniques
; Weather forecasting
; Metis
英文摘要: The seasonal predictability of austral summer rainfall is evaluated in a set of retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) performed as part of the Minerva and Metis projects. Both projects use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS) coupled to the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO). The Minerva runs consist of three sets of hindcasts where the spatial resolution of the model's atmospheric component is progressively increased while keeping the spatial resolution of its oceanic component constant. In the Metis runs, the spatial resolution of both the atmospheric and oceanic components are progressively increased. We find that raw model predictions show seasonal forecast skill for rainfall over northern and southeastern South America. However, predictability is difficult to detect on a local basis, but it can be detected on a large-scale pattern basis. In addition, increasing horizontal resolution does not lead to improvements in the forecast skill of rainfall over South America. A predictable component analysis shows that only the first predictable component of austral summer precipitation has forecast skill, and the source of forecast skill is El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Seasonal prediction of precipitation remains a challenge for state-of-the-art climate models. Positive benefits of increasing model resolution might be more evident in other atmospheric fields (i.e., temperature or geopotential height) and/or temporal scales (i.e., subseasonal temporal scales). © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110678
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bombardi R.J.,Trenary L.,Pegion K.,et al. Seasonal predictability of summer rainfall over South America[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)