globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0577.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85054074871
论文题名:
Predictable patterns of the atmospheric low-level circulation over the Indo-Pacific region in Project Minerva: Seasonal dependence and intraensemble variability
作者: Zhang T.; Huang B.; Yang S.; Kinter J.L.; III
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:20
起始页码: 8351
结束页码: 8379
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate prediction ; ENSO ; Hindcasts ; Monsoons ; Seasonal forecasting
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Atmospheric thermodynamics ; Forecasting ; Orthogonal functions ; Signal to noise ratio ; Tropics ; Climate prediction ; ENSO ; Hindcasts ; Monsoons ; Seasonal forecasting ; Climatology
英文摘要: The predictable patterns and intraensemble variability of monthly 850-hPa zonal wind over the tropical Indo-Pacific region are investigated using 7-month hindcasts for 1983-2009 from Project Minerva. When applied to the ensemble hindcasts initialized on 1 May and 1 November, a maximum signal-to-noise empirical orthogonal function analysis identifies the patterns of high predictability as the hindcasts progress. For both initial months, the most predictable patterns are associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The second predictable patterns with May initialization reflect the anomalous evolution of the western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, characterized by a northward shift of the WNP anomalous anticyclone/cyclone in summer and a southward shift in fall. The intraensemble variability shows a strong seasonality that affects different predictable patterns in different seasons. For May initialization, the dominant patterns of the ensemble spread bear some resemblance to the predictable WNP patterns in summer and ENSO patterns in fall, which reflect the noise-induced differences in the evolution of the predictable signals among ensemble members. On the other hand, the noise patterns with November initialization are dominated by the northern extratropical atmospheric perturbations from winter to early spring, which expand southward through the coupled footprinting mechanism to perturb the ENSO evolution in different ensemble members. In comparison, the extratropical perturbations in the Southern Hemisphere, most significant in early months with May-initialized predictions, are less effective in affecting the tropical circulation. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/110684
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China; Institute of Earth Climate and Environment System, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China

Recommended Citation:
Zhang T.,Huang B.,Yang S.,et al. Predictable patterns of the atmospheric low-level circulation over the Indo-Pacific region in Project Minerva: Seasonal dependence and intraensemble variability[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(20)
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