| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0901.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85052822329
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| 论文题名: | Internal variability and regional climate trends in an observational large ensemble |
| 作者: | McKinnon K.A.; Deser C.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 31, 期:17 | | 起始页码: | 6783
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| 结束页码: | 6802
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Atmospheric circulation
; Climate variability
; Ensembles
; ENSO
; Statistical techniques
; Trends
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric radiation
; Climate change
; Sea level
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate variability
; Ensembles
; ENSO
; Statistical techniques
; Trends
; Climate models
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| 英文摘要: | Recent observed climate trends result from a combination of external radiative forcing and internally generated variability. To better contextualize these trends and forecast future ones, it is necessary to properly model the spatiotemporal properties of the internal variability. Here, a statistical model is developed for terrestrial temperature and precipitation, and global sea level pressure, based upon monthly gridded observational datasets that span 1921-2014. The model is used to generate a synthetic ensemble, each member of which has a unique sequence of internal variability but with statistical properties similar to the observational record. This synthetic ensemble is combined with estimates of the externally forced response from climate models to produce an observational large ensemble (OBS-LE). The 1000 members of the OBS-LE display considerable diversity in their 50-yr regional climate trends, indicative of the importance of internal variability on multidecadal time scales. For example, unforced atmospheric circulation trends associated with the northern annular mode can induce winter temperature trends over Eurasia that are comparable in magnitude to the forced trend over the past 50 years. Similarly, the contribution of internal variability to winter precipitation trends is large across most of the globe, leading to substantial regional uncertainties in the amplitude and, in some cases, the sign of the 50-yr trend. The OBS-LE provides a real-world counterpart to initial-condition model ensembles. The approach could be expanded to using paleo-proxy data to simulate longer-term variability. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111384
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
McKinnon K.A.,Deser C.. Internal variability and regional climate trends in an observational large ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(17)
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