globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0649.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052932100
论文题名:
On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming
作者: King A.D.; Knutti R.; Uhe P.; Mitchell D.M.; Lewis S.C.; Arblaster J.M.; Freychet N.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:18
起始页码: 7495
结束页码: 7514
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Model comparison ; Temperature
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Gas emissions ; Global warming ; Greenhouse gases ; Temperature ; Uncertainty analysis ; Anthropogenic aerosols ; Climate simulation ; Individual modeling ; Local temperature ; Model comparison ; Natural variability ; Pre-industrial conditions ; Temperature changes ; Climate models
英文摘要: Given the Paris Agreement it is imperative there is greater understanding of the consequences of limiting global warming to the target 1.5° and 2°C levels above preindustrial conditions. It is challenging to quantify changes across a small increment of global warming, so a pattern-scaling approach may be considered. Here we investigate the validity of such an approach by comprehensively examining how well local temperatures and warming trends in a 1.5°C world predict local temperatures at global warming of 2°C. Ensembles of transient coupled climate simulations from multiple models under different scenarios were compared and individual model responses were analyzed. For many places, the multimodel forced response of seasonalaverage temperatures is approximately linear with global warming between 1.5° and 2°C. However, individual model results vary and large contributions from nonlinear changes in unforced variability or the forced response cannot be ruled out. In some regions, such as East Asia, models simulate substantially greater warming than is expected from linear scaling. Examining East Asia during boreal summer, we find that increased warming in the simulated 2°C world relative to scaling up from 1.5°C is related to reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Our findings suggest that, where forcings other than those due to greenhouse gas emissions change, the warming experienced in a 1.5°C world is a poor predictor for local climate at 2°C of global warming. In addition to the analysis of the linearity in the forced climate change signal, we find that natural variability remains a substantial contribution to uncertainty at these low-warming targets. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111392
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作者单位: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; School of Physical Environmental and Mathematical Sciences, University of New South WalesACT, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
King A.D.,Knutti R.,Uhe P.,et al. On the linearity of local and regional temperature changes from 1.5°C to 2°C of global warming[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(18)
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