DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0643.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052791187
论文题名: Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the lengthening of the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere
作者: Park B.-J. ; Kim Y.-H. ; Min S.-K. ; Lim E.-P.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 17 起始页码: 6803
结束页码: 6819
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Climate variability
; Seasonal cycle
; Summer/warm season
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Specific heat
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Climate variability
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Multi-Model Simulations
; Multidecadal variability
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Seasonal cycle
; Summer/warm season
; Climate models
英文摘要: Observed long-term variations in summer season timing and length in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) continents and their subregions were analyzed using temperature-based indices. The climatological mean showed coastal-inland contrast; summer starts and ends earlier inland than in coastal areas because of differences in heat capacity. Observations for the past 60 years (1953-2012) show lengthening of the summer season with earlier summer onset and delayed summer withdrawal across the NH. The summer onset advance contributed more to the observed increase in summer season length in many regions than the delay of summer withdrawal. To understand anthropogenic and natural contributions to the observed change, summer season trends from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel simulations forced with the observed external forcings [anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL), natural forcing only (NAT), and greenhouse gas forcing only (GHG)] were analyzed. ALL and GHG simulations were found to reproduce the overall observed global and regional lengthening trends, but NAT had negligible trends, which implies that increased greenhouse gases were the main cause of the observed changes. However, ALL runs tend to underestimate the observed trend of summer onset and overestimate that of withdrawal, the causes of which remain to be determined. Possible contributions of multidecadal variabilities, such as Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, to the observed regional trends in summer season length were also assessed. The results suggest that multidecadal variability can explain a moderate portion (about ±10%) of the observed trends in summer season length, mainly over the high latitudes. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111403
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Park B.-J.,Kim Y.-H.,Min S.-K.,et al. Anthropogenic and natural contributions to the lengthening of the summer season in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(17)