DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0734.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85052845236
论文题名: Atlantic ocean heat transport influences interannual-to-decadal surface temperature predictability in the North Atlantic Region
作者: Borchert L.F. ; Müller W.A. ; Baehr J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 17 起始页码: 6763
结束页码: 6782
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate prediction
; Decadal variability
; Meridional overturning circulation
; Surface temperature
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Forecasting
; Heat flux
; Ocean currents
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Climate prediction
; Decadal variability
; Meridional overturning circulations
; Ocean heat transport
; Oceanic variabilities
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Surface heat fluxes
; Surface temperatures
; Heat transfer
英文摘要: An analysis of a three-member ensemble of initialized coupled simulations with the MPI-ESM-LR covering the period 1901-2010 shows that Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) at 50°N influences surface temperature variability in the North Atlantic region for several years. Three to ten years after strong OHT phases at 50°N, a characteristic pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies emerges: warm anomalies are found in the North Atlantic and cold anomalies emerge in the Gulf Stream region. This pattern originates from persistent upper-ocean heat content anomalies that originate from southward-propagating OHT anomalies in the North Atlantic. Interannual-to-decadal SST predictability of yearly initialized hindcasts is linked to this SST pattern: when ocean heat transport at 50°N is strong at the initialization of a hindcast, SST anomaly correlation coefficients in the northeast Atlantic at lead years 2-9 are significantly higher than when the ocean heat transport at 50°N is weak at initialization. Surface heat fluxes that mask the predictable low-frequency oceanic variability that influences SSTs in the northwest Atlantic after strong OHT phases, and in the northwest and northeast Atlantic after weak OHT phases at 50°N lead to zonally asymmetrically predictable SSTs 7-9 years ahead. This study shows that the interannual-to-decadal predictability of North Atlantic SSTs depends strongly on the strength of subpolar ocean heat transport at the start of a prediction, indicating that physical mechanisms need to be taken into account for actual temperature predictions. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111405
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Institute for Oceanography, CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Borchert L.F.,Müller W.A.,Baehr J.. Atlantic ocean heat transport influences interannual-to-decadal surface temperature predictability in the North Atlantic Region[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(17)