globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0405.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049724504
论文题名:
From synoptic to interdecadal variability in southern African rainfall: Toward a unified view across time scales
作者: Pohl B.; Dieppois B.; Crétat J.; Lawler D.; Rouault M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:15
起始页码: 5845
结束页码: 5872
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Africa ; Climate classification/regimes ; Climate variability ; Decadal variability ; Interannual variability ; Rainfall
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure ; Climate change ; Natural convection ; Time measurement ; Africa ; Climate classification/regimes ; Climate variability ; Decadal variability ; Interannual variability ; Rain ; annual variation ; atmospheric convection ; climate classification ; climate variation ; decadal variation ; rainfall ; regional climate ; summer ; synoptic meteorology ; Africa
英文摘要: During the austral summer season (November-February), southern African rainfall, south of 20°S, has been shown to vary over a range of time scales, from synoptic variability (3-7 days, mostly tropical temperate troughs) to interannual variability (2-8 years, reflecting the regional effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation). There is also evidence for variability at quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and interdecadal (15-28 years) time scales, linked to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation, respectively. This study aims to provide an overview of these ranges of variability and their influence on regional climate and large-scale atmospheric convection and quantify uncertainties associated with each time scale. We do this by applying k-means clustering onto long-term (1901-2011) daily outgoing longwave radiation anomalies derived from the 56 individual members of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis. Eight large-scale convective regimes are identified. Results show that 1) the seasonal occurrence of the regimes significantly varies at the low-frequency time scales mentioned above; 2) these modulations account for a significant fraction of seasonal rainfall variability over the region; 3) significant associations are found between some of the regimes and the aforementioned modes of climate variability; and 4) associated uncertainties in the regime occurrence and convection anomalies strongly decrease with time, especially the phasing of transient variability. The short-lived synoptic anomalies and the low-frequency anomalies are shown to be approximately additive, but even if they combine their respective influence at both scales, the magnitude of short-lived perturbations remains much larger. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111421
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作者单位: Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, UMR 6282 Biogéosciences, CNRS/Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France; Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom; Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Sorbonne Universités, (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, IPSL, Paris, France; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, UMR 6282 Biogéosciences, CNRS/Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté, Dijon, France; Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Nansen-Tutu Center for Marine Environmental Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

Recommended Citation:
Pohl B.,Dieppois B.,Crétat J.,et al. From synoptic to interdecadal variability in southern African rainfall: Toward a unified view across time scales[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(15)
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