DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.013
论文题名: Calculating uncertainties on predictions of palaeoprecipitation from the magnetic properties of soils
作者: Heslop D. ; Roberts A.P.
刊名: Global and Planetary Change
ISSN: 0921-8236
出版年: 2013
卷: 110 起始页码: 379
结束页码: 385
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climofunction
; Discrimination intervals
; Magnetic susceptibility
; Palaeoprecipitation
; Pedogenesis
Scopus关键词: Climofunction
; Discrimination intervals
; Magnetic minerals
; Mean annual precipitation
; Palaeoprecipitation
; Pedogenesis
; Quantitative prediction
; Rock magnetic properties
; Forecasting
; Lithology
; Magnetic susceptibility
; Soils
; Uncertainty analysis
; calibration
; climate modeling
; discriminant analysis
; magnetic property
; numerical model
; paleoclimate
; paleoenvironment
; paleosol
; pedogenesis
; precipitation (climatology)
; prediction
; proxy climate record
; soil type
; theoretical study
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Quantitative predictions of past climate states based on calibrated proxy data are key to the reconstruction of palaeoenvironments and are essential for climate model validation. Magnetic climofunctions have been used to make predictions concerning past climates based on soil magnetic mineral assemblages. For example, detailed time series of Quaternary mean annual precipitation and palaeoprecipitation gradients across wide geographic regions have been predicted from the rock magnetic properties of Chinese loess and palaeosol units. Quantitative prediction requires full assessment of the uncertainties associated with predictions. However, little attention has been given to this important aspect of climofunction prediction. We present an analysis of an ensemble of published rock magnetic climofunctions and estimate the uncertainty of the associated predictions. We find that existing climofunctions have associated uncertainties that are so large that their subsequent predictions are effectively invalid. Thus, palaeoprecipitation reconstructions must be treated with extreme caution. In the future climofunctions that are constrained geologically through the inclusion of theoretical models of soil development may provide predictions with lower uncertainties. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84888814341&doi=10.1016%2fj.gloplacha.2012.11.013&partnerID=40&md5=315509e7dc1e91f77b3574e5a9e54f74
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/11142
Appears in Collections: 全球变化的国际研究计划
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, 0200 Canberra, ACT, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Heslop D.,Roberts A.P.. Calculating uncertainties on predictions of palaeoprecipitation from the magnetic properties of soils[J]. Global and Planetary Change,2013-01-01,110.