DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0853.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85050238616
论文题名: Detection of anthropogenic influence on fixed threshold indices of extreme temperature
作者: Yin H. ; Sun Y.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 16 起始页码: 6341
结束页码: 6352
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic effects
; Climate change
; Extreme events
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Anthropogenic effects
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Anthropogenic influence
; Anthropogenic signals
; Detection and attributions
; Extreme events
; Optimal fingerprinting
; Spatial and temporal changes
; Climate change
; air temperature
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; extreme event
; threshold
; China
; North America
; South America
英文摘要: Threshold indices of extreme temperature are defined based on temperature values that fall above or below fixed thresholds and thus have important implications for agriculture, engineering, and human health. Here, we focus on four extreme temperature fixed threshold indices and their detection and attribution at the global and continental scales, as well as within China. These indices include the number of days with daily minimum temperatures below 0°C [frost days (FD)] and above 20°C [tropical nights (TR)] and the number of days with daily maximum temperatures below 0°C [ice days (ID)] and above 25°C [summer days (SU)]. We employ an optimal fingerprinting method to compare the spatial and temporal changes in these fixed threshold indices assessed from observations and simulations performed with multiple models. We find that an anthropogenic signal can be robustly detected in these fixed threshold indices at scales of over the globe, most of the continents, and China. A natural signal cannot be identified in the changes in most of the indices, thus indicating the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in producing these changes. In North and South America, the models show poor performance in reproducing the fixed threshold indices related to daily maximum temperature. The changes in summer days are not clearly related to their responses to external forcing over these two continents. This study provides a useful complement to other detection studies and sheds light on the importance of anthropogenic forcing in determining most of the fixed threshold indices at the global scale and over most of the continents, compared with internal variability. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111432
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: National Climate Center, Laboratory for Climate Studies, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
Recommended Citation:
Yin H.,Sun Y.. Detection of anthropogenic influence on fixed threshold indices of extreme temperature[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(16)