DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0454.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049730732
论文题名: Intraseasonal tropical cyclogenesis prediction in a global coupled model system
作者: Jiang X. ; Xiang B. ; Zhao M. ; Li T. ; Lin S.-J. ; Wang Z. ; Chen J.-H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 15 起始页码: 6209
结束页码: 6227
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Climate prediction
; Intraseasonal variability
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Forecasting
; Storms
; Tropics
; Vorticity
; Climate prediction
; Cyclonic vorticity
; False alarm rate
; Global coupled model
; Intraseasonal variability
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; Relative vorticity
; Tropical cyclogenesis
; Climate models
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; cyclogenesis
; extreme event
; global ocean
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; seasonal variation
; thermodynamics
; tropical cyclone
; vorticity
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Caribbean Sea
; West Africa
英文摘要: Motivated by increasing demand in the community for intraseasonal predictions of weather extremes, predictive skill of tropical cyclogenesis is investigated in this study based on a global coupled model system. Limited intraseasonal cyclogenesis prediction skill with a high false alarm rate is found when averaged over about 600 tropical cyclones (TCs) over global oceans from 2003 to 2013, particularly over the North Atlantic (NA). Relatively skillful genesis predictions with more than 1-week lead time are only evident for about 10% of the total TCs. Further analyses suggest that TCs with relatively higher genesis skill are closely associated with the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and tropical synoptic waves, with their geneses strongly phase-locked to the convectively active region of the MJO and low-level cyclonic vorticity associated with synoptic-scale waves. Moreover, higher cyclogenesis prediction skill is found for TCs that formed during the enhanced periods of strong MJO episodes than those during weak or suppressed MJO periods. All these results confirm the critical role of the MJO and tropical synoptic waves for intraseasonal prediction of TC activity. Tropical cyclogenesis prediction skill in this coupled model is found to be closely associated with model predictability of several large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical fields. Particularly over the NA, higher predictability of low-level relative vorticity, midlevel humidity, and vertical zonal wind shear is evident along a tropical belt from the West Africa coast to the Caribbean Sea, in accord with more predictable cyclogenesis over this region. Over the extratropical NA, large-scale variables exhibit less predictability due to influences of extratropical systems, leading to poor cyclogenesis predictive skill. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111440
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Jiang X.,Xiang B.,Zhao M.,et al. Intraseasonal tropical cyclogenesis prediction in a global coupled model system[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(15)