| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0899.1
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85050224550
|
| 论文题名: | CMIP5 projected change in Northern Hemisphere winter cyclones with associated extreme winds |
| 作者: | Chang E.K.-M.
|
| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
|
| ISSN: | 8948755
|
| 出版年: | 2018
|
| 卷: | 31, 期:16 | | 起始页码: | 6527
|
| 结束页码: | 6542
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Extratropical cyclones
; Extreme events
; Northern Hemisphere
; Wind
|
| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Climate models
; Wind
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Cyclone activity
; Extratropical cyclones
; Extreme events
; Near-surface winds
; Northern hemisphere
; Northern Hemispheres
; Southern Hemisphere
; Storms
; climate change
; CMIP
; cyclone
; extratropical cyclone
; extreme event
; Northern Hemisphere
; Southern Hemisphere
; surface wind
; Atlantic Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
|
| 英文摘要: | In this study, 19 simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been analyzed to examine how winter cyclones producing extreme near-surface winds are projected to change. Extreme wind thresholds correspond to a top 5 or top 1 cyclone per winter month in the entire Northern Hemisphere (NH). The results show that CMIP5 models project a significant decrease in the number of such cyclones, with a 19-model mean decrease of about 17% for the entire NH toward the end of the twenty-first century, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario. The projected decrease is larger in the Atlantic (about 21%). Over the Pacific, apart from an overall decrease (about 13%), there is a northeastward shift in the extreme cyclone activity. Less decrease is found in the frequency of cyclones producing extreme winds at 850 hPa (about 5% hemisphere-wide), with models mainly projecting a northeastward shift in the Pacific. These results suggest that 850-hPa wind changes may not be a good proxy for near-surface wind changes. These results contrast with those for the Southern Hemisphere, in which the frequency of cyclones with extreme winds are projected to significantly increase in all four seasons. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111441
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
|
作者单位: | School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY, United States
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Chang E.K.-M.. CMIP5 projected change in Northern Hemisphere winter cyclones with associated extreme winds[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(16)
|
|
|