| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0651.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85049732572
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| 论文题名: | Assessing the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate extremes using CMIP5 models |
| 作者: | Paik S.; Min S.-K.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 31, 期:14 | | 起始页码: | 5333
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| 结束页码: | 5349
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Climate change
; Climate models
; Climate variability
; Extreme events
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| Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Budget control
; Climate change
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Temperature
; Volcanoes
; Clausius Clapeyron relation
; Climate variability
; Extreme events
; Extreme precipitation
; Multi-Model Simulations
; Observational analysis
; Precipitation extremes
; Radiation management
; Climate models
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; CMIP
; extreme event
; precipitation (climatology)
; volcanic eruption
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| 英文摘要: | This study analyzes extreme temperature and precipitation responses over the global land to five explosive tropical volcanic eruptions that occurred since the 1880s, using CMIP5 multimodel simulations. Changes in annual extreme indices during posteruption years are examined using a composite analysis. First, a robust global decrease in extreme temperature is found, which is stronger than the internal variability ranges (estimated from random bootstrap sampling). Intermodel correlation analysis shows a close relationship between annual extreme and mean temperature responses to volcanic forcing, indicating a similar mechanism at work. The cooling responses exhibit strong intermodel correlation with a decrease in surface humidity, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Second, extreme and mean precipitation reductions are observed during posteruption years, especially in Northern and Southern Hemisphere summer monsoon regions, with good intermodel agreement. The precipitation decreases are also larger than the internal variability ranges and are dominated by the monsoon regions. Moisture budget analysis further reveals that most of the precipitation decrease over the monsoon regions is explained by evaporation decrease, as well as dynamic and thermodynamic contributions. Interestingly, the dynamic effect is found to have a large influence on intermodel spread in precipitation responses, with high intermodel correlation with mean and extreme precipitation changes. These model-based results are largely supported by an observational analysis based on the Hadley Centre Global Climate Extremes Index 2 (HadEX2) dataset for the recent three volcanic eruptions. Our results demonstrate that temperature and precipitation extremes significantly respond to volcanic eruptions, largely resembling mean climate responses, which have important implications for geoengineering based on solar radiation management. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111474
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | Division of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, South Korea
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Paik S.,Min S.-K.. Assessing the impact of volcanic eruptions on climate extremes using CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(14)
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