DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0813.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049738143
论文题名: Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America
作者: Kam J. ; Knutson T.R. ; Milly P.C.D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 14 起始页码: 5581
结束页码: 5593
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic effects
; Hydrology
; Model comparison
; Model evaluation/performance
; Trends
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Hydrology
; Snow melting systems
; Stream flow
; Timing circuits
; Uncertainty analysis
; Anthropogenic effects
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Anthropogenic influence
; Climate change detection
; Model comparison
; Model evaluation/performance
; Trends
; Western United States
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; assessment method
; climate modeling
; hydrology
; runoff
; spring (season)
; streamflow
; trend analysis
; winter
; Canada
; United States
英文摘要: Over regions where snowmelt runoff substantially contributes to winter-spring streamflows, warming can accelerate snowmelt and reduce dry-season streamflows. However, conclusive detection of changes and attribution to anthropogenic forcing is hindered by the brevity of observational records, model uncertainty, and uncertainty concerning internal variability. In this study, the detection/attribution of changes in midlatitude North American winter-spring streamflow timing is examined using nine global climate models under multiple forcing scenarios. Robustness across models, start/end dates for trends, and assumptions about internal variability are evaluated. Marginal evidence for an emerging detectable anthropogenic influence (according to four or five of nine models) is found in the north-central United States, where winter-spring streamflows have been starting earlier. Weaker indications of detectable anthropogenic influence (three of nine models) are found in the mountainous western United States/southwestern Canada and in the extreme northeastern United States/Canadian Maritimes. In the former region, a recent shift toward later streamflows has rendered the full-record trend toward earlier streamflows only marginally significant, with possible implications for previously published climate change detection findings for streamflow timing in this region. In the latter region, no forced model shows as large a shift toward earlier streamflow timing as the detectable observed shift. In other (including warm, snow free) regions, observed trends are typically not detectable, although in the U.S. central plains we find detectable delays in streamflow, which are inconsistent with forced model experiments. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111489
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kam J.,Knutson T.R.,Milly P.C.D.. Climate model assessment of changes in winter-spring streamflow timing over North America[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(14)