DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0854.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048468863
论文题名: Future Projections of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting Based on CMIP5 Scenarios
作者: Naughtena K.A. ; Meissner K.J. ; Galton-Fenzi B.K. ; England M.H. ; Timmermann R. ; Hellmer H.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 13 起始页码: 5243
结束页码: 5261
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Antarctica
; Climate change
; Ocean
; Ocean models
; Southern Ocean
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Melting
; Ocean currents
; Saline water
; Sea ice
; Sea level
; Antarctic Bottom Water
; Antarctic Circumpolar Currents
; Antarctica
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; High salinity shelf waters
; Ocean
; Ocean model
; Southern ocean
; Climate models
; Antarctic Bottom Water
; basal melting
; climate change
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; continental shelf
; future prospect
; ice sheet
; ice shelf
; sea ice
; twenty first century
; Amundsen Sea
; Antarctic Circumpolar Current
; Antarctica
; Southern Ocean
英文摘要: Basal melting of Antarctic ice shelves is expected to increase during the twenty-first century as the ocean warms, which will have consequences for ice sheet stability and global sea level rise. Here we present future projections of Antarctic ice shelf melting using the Finite Element Sea Ice/Ice-Shelf Ocean Model (FESOM) forced with atmospheric output from models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). CMIP5 models are chosen based on their agreement with historical atmospheric reanalyses over the Southern Ocean; the best-performing models are ACCESS 1.0 and the CMIP5 multimodel mean. Their output is bias-corrected for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. During the twenty-first-century simulations, total ice shelf basal mass loss increases by between 41% and 129%. Every sector of Antarctica shows increased basal melting in every scenario, with the largest increases occurring in the Amundsen Sea. The main mechanism driving this melting is an increase in warm Circumpolar Deep Water on the Antarctic continental shelf. A reduction in wintertime sea ice formation simulated during the twenty-first century stratifies the water column, allowing a warm bottom layer to develop and intrude into ice shelf cavities. This effect may be overestimated in the Amundsen Sea because of a cold bias in the present-day simulation. Other consequences of weakened sea ice formation include freshening of High Salinity Shelf Water and warming of Antarctic Bottom Water. Furthermore, freshening around the Antarctic coast in our simulations causes the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to weaken and the Antarctic Coastal Current to strengthen. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111493
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Alfred Wegener Institut, Bremerhaven, Germany; British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Naughtena K.A.,Meissner K.J.,Galton-Fenzi B.K.,et al. Future Projections of Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting Based on CMIP5 Scenarios[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(13)