DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0623.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85049753944
论文题名: The Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in CFSv2 forecasts: Biases and importance of improving air-sea interaction processes
作者: Li Y. ; Han W. ; Wang W. ; Zhang L. ; Ravichandran M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 14 起始页码: 5351
结束页码: 5370
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air-sea interaction
; Forecasting
; Intraseasonal variability
; Monsoons
; Sea surface temperature
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Barium compounds
; Forecasting
; Heat flux
; Submarine geophysics
; Surface properties
; Surface waters
; Tropical engineering
; Air sea interactions
; Air-sea interaction process
; Indian summer monsoon
; Intraseasonal oscillations
; Intraseasonal variability
; Monsoons
; National centers for environmental predictions
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; atmosphere-ocean coupling
; climate oscillation
; forecasting method
; heat flux
; monsoon
; sea surface temperature
; seasonal variation
; Arabian Sea
; Bay of Bengal
; India
; Indian Ocean
英文摘要: Northward-propagating Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) are a major origin of the active-break spells of the monsoon rainfall. Forecast results for 28 active and 27 break spells from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), during 1999-2010 are analyzed. CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the propagation of MISOs from the equator to central India, showing improvements in many aspects compared to its previous version. Systematic biases for MISOs, however, still exist, exhibiting apparently weaker amplitude and slower northward propagation compared to observations. The eastern Arabian Sea (EAS)-western Bay of Bengal (WBB) region (EAS-WBB region; 12°-20°N, 65°-85°E) is found to be critical for the MISO prediction. In that region, the forecast and observed MISO trajectories begin to bifurcate from each other, and forecast errors grow rapidly. Further diagnosis reveals that local air-sea interaction in that region is severely underrepresented in CFSv2. Sea surface temperature (SST) response to surface heat flux forcing and convection response to SST forcing are both too weak, leading to the underestimated MISO amplitude. The relationship between precipitation and SST in CFSv2 is much more chaotic than in observation. The misrepresentation of air-sea coupling results in longer MISO periods in the EAS-WBB region, manifesting as slower propagation and delayed arrival of MISOs in central India. Refining the air-sea coupling processes is crucial for improving the CFSv2 forecast. This includes taking into account the ocean skin layer, better resolving the diurnal cycle, and improving the ocean model physics. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111499
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Function Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China; Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States; National Center for Antarctic and Ocean Research, Vasco de Gama, India
Recommended Citation:
Li Y.,Han W.,Wang W.,et al. The Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in CFSv2 forecasts: Biases and importance of improving air-sea interaction processes[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(14)