globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0514.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048167084
论文题名:
Finding ocean states that are consistent with observations from a perturbed physics parameter ensemble
作者: Sparrow S.; Millar R.J.; Yamazaki K.; Massey N.; Povey A.C.; Bowery A.; Grainger R.G.; Wallom D.; Allen M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期:12
起始页码: 4639
结束页码: 4656
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models ; Coupled models ; Ensembles ; Filtering techniques ; Meridional overturning circulation
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climate models ; Monte Carlo methods ; Surface waters ; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations ; Coupled climate model ; Coupled models ; Ensembles ; Filtering technique ; Meridional overturning circulations ; Rapid climate change ; The standard model ; Oceanography ; atmosphere-ocean coupling ; climate modeling ; ensemble forecasting ; meridional circulation ; observational method ; overturn ; sea state ; sea surface temperature
英文摘要: A very large ensemble is used to identify subgrid-scale parameter settings for the HadCM3 model that are capable of best simulating the ocean state over the recent past (1980-2010). A simple particle filtering technique based upon the agreement of basin mean sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 700-m ocean heat content with EN3 observations is applied to an existing perturbed physics ensemble with initial conditions perturbations. A single set of subgrid-scale parameter values was identified from the wide range of initial parameter sets that gave the best agreement with ocean observations for the period studied. The parameter set, different from the standard model parameters, has a transient climate response of 1.68 K. The selected parameter set shows an improved agreement with EN3 decadal-mean SST patterns and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) at 26°N as measured by the Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) array. Particle filtering techniques as demonstrated here could have a useful role in improving the starting point for traditional model-tuning exercises in coupled climate models. © 2018 American Meteorological Society.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111527
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应

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作者单位: Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Centre for Environmental Data Analysis, Science and Technology Facilities Council Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Oxford, Didcot, United Kingdom; National Centre for Earth Observation, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Sparrow S.,Millar R.J.,Yamazaki K.,et al. Finding ocean states that are consistent with observations from a perturbed physics parameter ensemble[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(12)
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