DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85047057456
论文题名: Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes
作者: Stevenson S. ; Overpeck J.T. ; Fasullo J. ; Coats S. ; Parsons L. ; Otto-Bliesner B. ; Ault T. ; Loope G. ; Cole J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 11 起始页码: 4309
结束页码: 4327
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Climate variability
; Drought
; ENSO
; Multidecadal variability
; Paleoclimate
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climate models
; Drought
; Volcanoes
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Atmosphere ocean variability
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; Multidecadal variability
; Paleoclimates
; Southern oscillation
; Volcanic eruptions
; Climatology
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; decadal variation
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; ensemble forecasting
; extreme event
; paleoclimate
; teleconnection
; twentieth century
; volcanic eruption
; Amazonia
; Asia
; Australia
; Mexico [North America]
; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
; United States
英文摘要: Multidecadal hydroclimate variability has been expressed as "megadroughts" (dry periods more severe and prolonged than observed over the twentieth century) and corresponding "megapluvial" wet periods in many regions around the world. The risk of such events is strongly affected by modes of coupled atmosphere-ocean variability and by external impacts on climate. Accurately assessing the mechanisms for these interactions is difficult, since it requires large ensembles of millennial simulations as well as long proxy time series. Here, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble is used to examine statistical associations among megaevents, coupled climate modes, and forcing from major volcanic eruptions. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strongly affects hydroclimate extremes: larger ENSO amplitude reduces megadrought risk and persistence in the southwestern United States, the Sahel, monsoon Asia, and Australia, with corresponding increases in Mexico and the Amazon. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) also alters megadrought risk, primarily in the Caribbean and the Amazon. Volcanic influences are felt primarily through enhancing AMO amplitude, as well as alterations in the structure of both ENSO and AMO teleconnections, which lead to differing manifestations of megadrought. These results indicate that characterizing hydroclimate variability requires an improved understanding of both volcanic climate impacts and variations in ENSO/AMO teleconnections. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111532
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, United States; Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stevenson S.,Overpeck J.T.,Fasullo J.,et al. Climate variability, volcanic forcing, and last millennium hydroclimate extremes[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(11)