DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0672.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85048201973
论文题名: Model assessment of observed precipitation trends over land regions: Detectable human influences and possible low bias in model trends
作者: Knutson T.R. ; Zeng F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2018
卷: 31, 期: 12 起始页码: 4617
结束页码: 4637
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Anthropogenic effects
; Atmosphere
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Precipitation
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Earth atmosphere
; Floods
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (chemical)
; Surface waters
; Anthropogenic effects
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Anthropogenic influence
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Historical simulation
; Precipitation trends
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Southern south america
; Climate models
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; CMIP
; drought
; precipitation assessment
; trend analysis
; Canada
; Europe
; Mediterranean Region
; North Africa
; South America
; United States
英文摘要: Precipitation trends for 1901-2010, 1951-2010, and 1981-2010 over relatively well-observed global land regions are assessed for detectable anthropogenic influences and for consistency with historical simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CMIP5 historical all-forcing runs are broadly consistent with the observed trend pattern (1901-2010), but with an apparent low trend bias tendency in the simulations. Despite this bias, observed and modeled trends are statistically consistent over 59% of the analyzed area. Over 20% (9%) of the analyzed area, increased (decreased) precipitation is partly attributable to anthropogenic forcing. These inferred human-induced changes include increases over regions of the north-central United States, southern Canada, Europe, and southern South America and decreases over parts of the Mediterranean region and northern tropical Africa. Trends for the shorter periods (1951-2010 and 1981-2010) do not indicate a prominent low trend bias in the models, as found for the 1901-2010 trends. An atmosphere-only model, forced with observed sea surface temperatures and other climate forcing agents, also underpredicts the observed precipitation increase in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics since 1901. The CMIP5 all-forcing ensemble's low bias in simulated trends since 1901 is a tentative finding that, if borne out in further studies, suggests that precipitation projections using these regions and models could overestimate future drought risk and underestimate future flooding risk, assuming all other factors equal. © 2018 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/111539
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Knutson T.R.,Zeng F.. Model assessment of observed precipitation trends over land regions: Detectable human influences and possible low bias in model trends[J]. Journal of Climate,2018-01-01,31(12)